Closing the Gap: Why Are Governments Still Missing the Mark?

Australia’s latest Closing the Gap Annual Data Compilation Report from the Productivity Commission paints a sobering picture: despite some improvements, many critical targets set under the National Agreement on Closing the Gap are not being met.

Mixed Progress, Deep Concerns

According to the report, there have been positive movements towards several socio-economic outcomes with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander employment rates improving and on track to meet the target of 62% by 2031, with 55.7% of those aged 25 – 64 currently employed. Similarly, preschool enrolment rates for Indigenous children are strong with 94.2% enrolled in early childhood education, on track to meet the 2025 target of 95%.

However, progress remains limited across many critical areas affecting Indigenous wellbeing, highlighting a concerning trajectory:

• Adult imprisonment rates are rising significantly and the rate for First People (adults) incarcerated increased from 1,906.1 per 100,000 in 2019 to 2,304.4 per 100,000 in 2024, far exceeding the target of a 15% reduction by 2031.
• Youth detention remains alarmingly high, with 26.1 per 10,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander youth in detention in 2023–24, unchanged from the baseline (2018-19)
• Suicide rates continue to rise, reaching 30.8 per 100,000 people in 2023, up from 23.6 per 100,000 in 2018, clearly not meeting the target for a significant and sustained reduction.
• The number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children in out-of-home care has also increased, with the rate rising from 47.3 per 1,000 in 2019 to 50.3 per 1,000 in 2024, significantly worsening outcomes for children and families.

Priority Reforms: Still Not Implemented

The report highlights that despite ambitious promises, government progress on implementing key Priority Reforms remains limited and the Productivity Commission states clearly that:

“We still do not have any way of measuring the implementation of the Priority Reforms for all government parties to the Agreement” emphasising that “Not having the full picture in place to demonstrate progress will continue to hamper the efforts of all parties to improve outcomes” – p 6 / VI

This lack of data and accountability directly impacts the ability to tailor localised, culturally responsive solutions.

Outcomes are improving and targets on track:

• Preschool enrolments (Target 3)
• Employment (Target 8)
• Land mass subject to legal rights and interests (Target 15A)
• Sea waters subject to legal rights and interests (Target 15B).

Outcomes continue to worsen in four areas:

• Early childhood development (Target 4)
• Adult incarceration (Target 10)
• Children in out-of-home care (Target 12)
• Suicide (Target 14).

Outcomes that are not on track to be met:

• Life expectancy (Target 1)
• Healthy birthweights (Target 2)
• Year 12 or equivalent qualifications (Target 5)
• Tertiary educations (Target 6)
• Youth engagement (Target 7)
• Appropriately sized housing (Target 9A)